July 2025 in Colorado brought a noticeable contrast in temperature patterns across the state, particularly in relation to the Continental Divide (figure 1). Areas west of the divide experienced above-average temperatures, with persistent warmth driven in part by reduced cloud cover and drier-than-normal conditions. This warmth was especially pronounced in higher elevation zones and the Western Slope, where daytime highs consistently exceeded seasonal norms. In contrast, much of eastern Colorado saw average to below-average temperatures for the month. This was particularly true in the lower Arkansas River Basin, where several stretches experienced a cooler-than-usual July. The cooler conditions in the southeast were likely influenced by increased moisture and cloudiness from early-season monsoonal activity, which helped moderate daytime temperatures and support slightly cooler overall conditions compared to historical averages.

Figure 1: July 2025 Average Monthly Temperatures Compared to Normal

Similar to temperature trends, the past two months have highlighted a stark divide in moisture conditions across Colorado. Thunderstorm complexes in June and July brought localized relief to the Northeast and the Arkansas River Valley, contributing to notable drought improvement across the eastern plains. However, western Colorado has experienced rapid drought onset, with continued dryness west of the Continental Divide.

As of July 20th:

• Water year-to-date precipitation stands at 85% of average statewide

• 30-day precipitation is at 58% of average

• 60-day precipitation is at 77% of average

• 20-inch soil moisture is 22%, but overall conditions are near normal at 92% of median

Despite these statewide averages, the Western Slope is seeing increasing drought severity, with many areas falling into D2 (severe) to D3 (extreme) drought categories (figure 2). Streamflows remain low, though not yet at the severity implied by those drought designations. Rather, the classification reflects moderate short-term dryness compounding long-term drought stress.

Recent precipitation patterns reflect an increasingly unusual east/west wet–dry split (figure 3; 4). This seasonal divide is not uncommon, but it has been especially pronounced this year. Looking ahead, the next three weeks mark a critical periodfor monsoon and flash flood activity, which could bring relief—or compound deficits depending on storm track.

figure 2: Colorado Drought Monitor

figure 3: Colorado 180-day Standard Precipitation Index

figure 4: 28-Day Precipitation as Percent of Median

July Precipitation Totals 

Leadville-1.42 in

Buena Vista-0.82 in

Salida-1.81 in

Cañon City-2.42 in

Pueblo -1.67 in

Rocky Ford-2.17 in

Lamar-2.55 in

July streamflow has been average or slightly below average in the Arkansas River Basin. In the Upper Arkansas, this is due to the Upper Arkansas Voluntary Flow Management Program.

The Upper Arkansas Voluntary Flow Management Program (VFMP) is a collaborative water management initiative designed to support recreational boating and fisheries along the Arkansas River —particularly in the Upper Arkansas Valley and through the Arkansas Headwaters Recreation Area (AHRA). Through this program, flows are maintained at a minimum of ~700 cfs at the Wellsville gauge between July 1st and August 15th. If native runoff falls below that level, transbasin water diverted from the Western Slope via the Fryingpan–Arkansas Project—from reservoirs like Turquoise Lake and Twin Lakes—is released to augment the flow.

figure 5: Map of 28-day average streamflow compared to historical median

July Streamflow Summary

* measured flow totals include native flows, BOR project water, releases, and exchanges

figure 6: Map of river gauges in the Arkansas River Basin

figure 6: Arkansas River Flows Upstream to Downstream Viewer

• Granite, CO (8 miles south of Leadville)-  355 cfs 
• Salida, CO- 657 cfs
• Wellsville, CO- 617 cfs
• Portland, CO (10 miles south of Canon City)- 590 cfs
• Above Pueblo Reservoir, CO- 566 cfs
• Avondale, CO- 865 cfs
• Lamar, CO- 331 cfs

For current streamflow updates, reference the Colors of Water webpage.

figure 7: Reservoir Storage Percent of Median

Climate models continue to favor above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, particularly for western Colorado and the northern Great Plains. Notably, this trend has appeared even in models not directly tied to La Niña, especially in early fall when year-to-year variability tends to be lower than in spring.

Without a strong monsoonal pattern, wildfire risk and water supply stress will remain elevated across western Colorado this summer. Continued monitoring will be critical as we move through the peak of monsoon season.

figure 9: Three Month Precipitation Outlook

Monitoring

Drought Monitoring: US Drought Monitor

Drought Forecast: National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center

Precipitation Totals:  Community Collaborative Ran, Snow, and Hail Network’s Precipitation Mapping System.

Snowpack: Natural Resources Conservation Service

Winter Water Storage System (only applicable until march): Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District

Precipitation: ​​https://www.cocorahs.org/

Arkansas River Daily Report – http://www.div2waterops.com/dailyreports

Arkansas Streamflow: http://www.div2waterops.com/ColorsOfWater 

Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting: Natural Resource Conservation Service Snow Survey

Additional monitoring resources: 

Colorado Water Conservation District/Department of Natural Resources

 Colors of Water 

USBR Instant Data Hydromet

Definitions

30 Year Running Average:  When we present the monthly flows, we compare them to that month’s median flows from the last 30 years (referred to as 30 year running average). 

Reservoir Percent Full: The  Bureau of Reclamation considers a reservoir “full” when pool elevation is at the top of the active conservation pool. Percentage is therefore based on total reservoir volume below that level.

Educational Resources

Administrative Call Explained: DWR

Citizen’s Guide to Colorado Water Law: CFWE Education

Non-Attorney’s Guidebook to Colorado Water Courts: Co State

Voluntary Flow Management 

1. https://arkvalleyvoice.com/ahra-says-arkansas-river-flows-are-high-and-fast-making-safety-paramount/
2. https://coloradotu.org/arkansas-river

U.S. Climate Normals: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals