According to the most recent U.S, Drought Monitor, all of the Arkansas River Basin is now entirely drought free (figure 1)! December was a dry month for the Arkansas River Basin, but the early November storms have meant that the total the precipitation totals for the water year are still above the median for the end of December (figure 2). 

figure 1: US Drought Monitor (1/1/2025)

figure 2: Colorado’s Water Year-to-Date Precipitation Percent of Median

The National Weather Service’s Three Month Outlook is forecasts an equal chance of below and above normal temperature in the Arkansas River basin through March 2025 (figure 3). The outlook is also leaning below average precipitation for the Arkansas River Basin through March 2024 (figure 4). These models are based on a predicted shift to La Niña. As of Dec 14, 2024, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center reports that La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024 – January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance). 

figure 4: Three Month Precipitation Outlook

Monthly Precipitation Totals

The Arkansas River Basin’s snow total to 101% of the December median (figure 5; figure 6).  

figure 5: Snow Water Equivalent in the Arkansas River Basin

figure 6: USDA’s Arkansas River Basin SNOTEL Snow/Precipitation Update Report

The conduit from Sugarloaf Dam to Mt. Elbert Forebay is ready to run water again after being closed for an outage from 11/26/2024 until 12/3/2024.  Colorado Parks and Wildlife announced that the current plan is to run the conduit at full capacity (~375 cfs) until the forebay is filled back up to the minimum
pumping elevation of 9630 ft. 

figure 7: Map of river gauges in the Arkansas River Basin

River Flow Snapshot (1/2/2024, 9:30am)*

* measured flow totals include native flows, BOR project water, releases, and exchanges

figure 8: Arkansas River Flows Upstream to Downstream Viewer

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• Granite, CO (8 miles south of Leadville)-  218 cfs
• Salida, CO- 416 cfs
• Wellsville, CO- 442 cfs
• Portland, CO (10 miles south of Canon City)- 470 cfs
• Above Pueblo Reservoir, CO- 87.4 cfs
• Avondale, CO- 343 cfs
• Lamar, CO- 54.1 cfs

For current streamflow updates, reference the Colors of Water webpage.

Flows Compared to Median

*30 year running avg

Monitoring

Drought Monitoring: US Drought Monitor

Drought Forecast: National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center

Precipitation Totals:  Community Collaborative Ran, Snow, and Hail Network’s Precipitation Mapping System.

Snowpack: Natural Resources Conservation Service

Winter Water Storage System (only applicable until march): Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District

Precipitation: ​​https://www.cocorahs.org/

Arkansas River Daily Report – http://www.div2waterops.com/dailyreports

Wind: Windy

 Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting: Natural Resource Conservation Service Snow Survey

Additional monitoring resources: 

Colorado Water Conservation District/Department of Natural Resources

 Colors of Water 

USBR Instant Data Hydromet

Definitions

30 Year Running Average:  When we present the monthly flows, we compare them to that month’s median flows from the last 30 years (referred to as 30 year running average). 

Reservoir Percent Full: The  Bureau of Reclamation considers a reservoir “full” when pool elevation is at the top of the active conservation pool. Percentage is therefore based on total reservoir volume below that level.

Authorized Diversion: An authorized diversion is NOT A CALL, but a notice that one (or more) diversion structures are subject to a call have been authorized to divert water against the call. These types of  diversions are only authorized when the diversion will not affect the downstream call. This type of diversion could occur due to a localized event, such as precipitation diurnal patterns (labeled futile diversion or localized event)

Nonconsumptive call: A call by a diversion that consumes no water (ex. Hydropower, in-stream flow water management).

Futile Call: A situation in which a junior water right holder is allowed to continue to divert in spite of a downstream senior call when curtailing the junior would not produce any additional water for the senior. 

For more information on calls, reference the Colorado Division of Natural Resources Administrative Call Standard document. 

Educational Resources

Administrative Call Explained: DWR

Citizen’s Guide to Colorado Water Law: CFWE Education

Non-Attorney’s Guidebook to Colorado Water Courts: Co State

Voluntary Flow Management 

1. https://arkvalleyvoice.com/ahra-says-arkansas-river-flows-are-high-and-fast-making-safety-paramount/
2. https://coloradotu.org/arkansas-river

U.S. Climate Normals: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals